Market Update Fall 2025: Why Lower Interest Rates Could Trigger a Coastal OC Buying Surge

Missy Wiesen
Sep 8, 2025
2 min read

Updated: Sep 8, 2025

If you've been sitting on the fence, this might be the push you’ve been waiting for: mortgage rates are finally coming down and the buzz in the air feels different this time.

For those of you who don’t know me, I’m Missy Wiesen, your Coastal Orange County real estate expert. I show you what it’s really like to live in The OC. Thinking about buying, selling, or investing in Orange County real estate? Call, text, or scan the QR code to book a quick Zoom with me.

Rates Are Dropping and That Matters

According to Mortgage News Daily, the national average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage today is 6.29%, down from 6.43% just yesterday. At first glance, that might not seem like a huge drop, but let me put it in context:

Over the last year, we’ve been bouncing between 6.5% and 7%, with Q1 mortgage rates reaching as high as 7.5%. So yes, this is a meaningful move — especially if you’re doing the math.

screenshot of Mortgage News Daily interest rate average today.

If you bought a $1.5M home in January at 7.5%, you’d be paying around $1,000 more per month than if you bought that same home today at 6.25%.

That’s the kind of savings that adds up fast. And for savvy buyers? That’s a signal worth paying attention to.

Market Update Fall 2025: What’s Driving the Optimism?

Here’s the short version: the Fed is expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate next week and most analysts anticipate two more cuts before year’s end.

Now, let’s clarify: The Fed Funds Rate doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, but it does influence them. And right now, all signs point toward a market environment that’s finally beginning to loosen.

As someone who lives and breathes Coastal OC real estate, I can tell you, this is the most optimistic chatter I’ve heard in a while. And when sentiment shifts, the market often follows.

What This Means for Coastal Orange County

In our local market, inventory has remained fairly steady, which is saying something, because it’s already been pretty limited. While I do think we’ll see more sellers list their homes as rates fall, we’re not likely to see a surge that fully meets buyer demand.

We could be looking at a perfect storm:

Lower interest rates
Tight inventory
Rising buyer confidence

That combo tends to drive competition, and prices.

If you're a buyer who’s been watching from the sidelines, now is the time to act strategically. Waiting for rates to fall even further could backfire if demand starts surging before you’re ready.