Rates Are Stuck Near This Year's Highs. Coastal Orange County's Supply Barely Moved: Market Update, September 2026

By Missy Wiesen, REALTOR® | Certified Negotiation Expert | Serhant California, Inc.

TL;DR: Total active inventory across the five coastal markets barely moved last week, down just two listings to 714. Mortgage rates are still parked in the mid-to-upper 6% range nationally, with no relief expected before year end. But under that flat headline number, the five markets are pulling in different directions. Laguna Beach's recent sales are closing twice as fast as they were a week ago. Laguna Niguel's 14-day sales count jumped by more than half. Dana Point added new listings while its recent sales slowed, a combination worth watching. Here's what the numbers actually show, market by market.

What Actually Happened in Coastal Orange County Between August 24 and August 31?

Total active inventory across Newport Beach, Corona del Mar, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, and Dana Point held essentially flat, slipping from 716 listings to 714. The rate I'm tracking for coastal buyers ticked up to 6.81% this week. On the surface, that reads like a quiet, uneventful week. It wasn't. Underneath that flat total, the pace of sale diverged sharply from market to market, and that divergence is the more useful story for anyone actively buying or selling right now.

Is National Rate Pressure Actually Showing Up Locally?

Not evenly. Nationally, 30-year rates spent the second half of August drifting in the mid-6% range, near the highest levels of the year, and major forecasts are pointing to rates holding closer to 6.5% into year end rather than dropping meaningfully. That's the backdrop. Locally, though, Laguna Niguel and Laguna Beach both saw recent sales accelerate over the same week rates ticked higher, which tells me buyers who are ready to move here are not waiting on the Fed. Dana Point told a different story, which I'll get to below.

Why Did Laguna Beach's Days on Market Cut in Half This Week?

Homes that sold in Laguna Beach over the last 14 days averaged 30 days on market, down from 70 days the week before. That's not a rounding difference, that's homes moving roughly twice as fast. Active inventory in Laguna Beach also pulled back from 167 to 157 listings, a six percent drop in a single week. Fewer homes on the market, and the ones that are selling are moving faster. The median sold price in that same window came in lower, at $3,375,000 versus $4,106,250 the prior week, but with only 17 closed sales feeding that number, that swing looks like a shift in which price tier closed that week rather than a genuine drop in value.

What's Behind Laguna Niguel's Jump in 14-Day Sales?

Laguna Niguel closed 29 sales in the last 14 days, up from 18 the week before, a jump of more than 60 percent, while active inventory held nearly steady at 159 listings. Sale prices there also firmed up, with homes averaging 99.2 percent of list price, up from 98.4 percent. When sales volume climbs that much while supply stays flat, that's genuine tightening, not noise.

Why Did Dana Point's Recent Sales Pace Slow Down?

Dana Point is the market to watch this week. Active listings rose from 97 to 102, and new listings entering the market in the last two weeks jumped from 4 to 13, a real acceleration in new supply. At the same time, sales closed in the last 14 days fell from 19 to 9. More homes coming on, fewer homes closing in the same window. One week of data isn't a trend on its own, especially with sale counts that small, but it's the kind of shift worth checking again next week before drawing a conclusion either way.

What Does "Months of Supply" Actually Show When You Do the Math?

Months of supply isn't a figure my tracker spits out on its own, it's Active listings divided by a monthly sales pace built from the last 14 days of closings. For Laguna Niguel, 29 sales in 14 days works out to roughly 62 sales a month, and 159 active listings divided by that pace lands at about 2.6 months of supply, solidly in seller's market territory. Dana Point tells the opposite story: 9 sales in 14 days works out to roughly 19 a month, and 102 active listings divided by that pace comes out to about 5.3 months of supply, up from roughly 2.4 months the week before. That's a big one-week swing built on a small number of transactions, so I'd treat it as an early signal to watch rather than a confirmed shift in Dana Point's market.

Is Corona del Mar's Luxury Tier Still Holding Up?

The headline number there is striking: homes that sold in Corona del Mar over the last 14 days averaged 100 percent of list price, with a median sold price of $6,391,000, up from $5,100,000 the week before. I'd caution against reading too much into that jump. Corona del Mar only saw 10 sales in that 14-day window across the entire market, so a single higher-end closing can swing the median significantly. What it does confirm is that the ultra-luxury tier in Corona del Mar isn't sitting, homes there are still closing at or above asking.

What Should Sellers Take Away From This Week's Numbers?

Every week I pull this data, I keep coming back to the same thesis: pricing strategy, not price point, is what separates the homes that sell fast from the homes that sit. That held again this week. Across every market I track, the homes closing inside 15 days are landing at or above list price, while the ones sitting past 30 days are settling well below it. That gap doesn't shrink because a market is expensive or affordable, it shows up at every price point I track. If you're weighing whether to list now or wait for rates to move, the pricing decision you make on day one is doing more work than the rate environment is.

What Should Buyers Take Away From This Week's Numbers?

If you're shopping in Laguna Niguel or Laguna Beach right now, expect competition. Sales pace picked up in both markets this week, and homes that are priced and presented well are not sitting long enough to leave much room to negotiate. Dana Point looks like the market with the most breathing room at the moment, with new listings arriving faster than they're being absorbed, though I'd want to see that pattern hold for another week or two before calling it a real opening. As always, none of this changes the math on your own monthly payment, so run your numbers at today's rate rather than waiting for a rate that may not come before the end of the year.

What's the Bottom Line for Coastal Orange County Heading Into September?

The headline number, total active inventory basically unchanged at 714 listings, undersells how much moved beneath it this week. Laguna Beach and Laguna Niguel both tightened. Dana Point loosened, at least for now. Corona del Mar's top tier kept closing at full price. None of that shows up if you only look at the total. As a REALTOR® working these five coastal markets every week, watching the breakdown market by market is how I catch a shift like Dana Point's before it ever shows up in a countywide headline.

If you want a read on what any of this means for your specific street or price point in Newport Beach, Corona del Mar, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, or Dana Point, reach out and I'll walk through the numbers with you directly. For more on how this compares to two weeks ago, see my article on how inventory cooled off its 2026 peak in mid-August, and for last week's full read on why the "inventory is piling up" headlines don't hold up locally, see my August 29 market update.

Missy Wiesen, REALTOR® | Certified Negotiation Expert | Serhant California, Inc.

realtormissy3@gmail.com

MissySellsOC.com