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Steven Thomas OC Housing Report & Newport Beach Market Update


Here’s a summary of the Orange County Housing Report by Steven Thomas dated September 3, 2024:


OC Housing Report & Newport Beach Market Update: Key Points


  • Rising Market Times: The Expected Market Time (EMT) has reached 73 days, the highest since September 2019, reflecting a slowing market due to rising inventory and steady demand. This contrasts with the faster 49-day EMT last year and the 3-year pre-pandemic average of 82 days.

    Local Expected Market Time:

    9.3.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: 203 DAYS. CORONA DEL MAR: 210 DAYS

    8.19.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: 157 DAYS. CORONA DEL MAR: 158 DAYS


  • Inventory Growth: The active inventory stands at 3,599 homes, a 3% increase in the past two weeks and the highest since October 2022. This is 34% more than last year’s 2,385 homes but remains far below the 3-year pre-pandemic average of 6,723 homes. This increase is driven by more sellers entering the market, with 16% more FOR-SALE signs this year compared to 2023. More homeowners are selling, but rising inventory has slowed the market.

    Local Inventory:

    9.3.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: 210 HOMES. CORONA DEL MAR: 84 HOMES

    8.19.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: 215 HOMES. CORONA DEL MAR: 84 HOMES




  • Demand Decrease: Demand, measured by pending sales, dropped by 8% over the past two weeks, falling to 1,470, the lowest level since February 2024. This decline is partially attributed to recent changes in the real estate industry. Although rates are improving (now at 6.4%), affordability issues continue to limit buyer activity.

    Local Demand (Last 30 days pending sales):

    9.3.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: 31. CORONA DEL MAR: 12

    8.19.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: 41. CORONA DEL MAR: 16


  • Luxury Market ($2M+): The luxury market is cooling, with inventory slightly decreasing to 1,225 homes (down by 9) and luxury demand decreasing to 236 pending sales (down by 10). The Expected Market Time for luxury homes increased to 156 days. Homes priced between $2M and $4M have an EMT of 110 days, while homes between $4M and $6M saw a steep rise to 351 days. Homes priced above $6M have an EMT of 329 days. Despite these longer EMTs, year-over-year comparisons show that both luxury inventory and demand are higher than in 2023, with 433 more homes and 66 more pending sales in the market this year.

    Local Median Active List Price:

    9.3.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: $4.5M. CORONA DEL MAR: $5M

    8.19.2024 NEWPORT BEACH: $4.8M. CORONA DEL MAR: $5.3M



Market Outlook:

The Orange County market is expected to remain slow until inventory peaks in the next few weeks. Afterward, inventory will likely begin to fall as we approach the holiday season. With mortgage rates on a downward trajectory, demand is expected to improve as affordability increases.


Personal Thoughts:

Inventory will peak as interest rates continue to fall. This reduction in rates is expected to drive increased demand. It will be interesting to see how the next few weeks unfold, especially with the upcoming Jobs report this week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next week, and the Federal Reserve's decision on the Federal Funds Rate. As highlighted in my recent blog post, How a Federal Funds Rate Cut Could Impact the Housing Market, mortgage rates are predicted to trend downward through the end of 2025. As affordability improves with these lower rates, we should expect to see increased buyer demand.


Are you considering buying or selling in this changing market? 

With market times increasing and rates shifting, now is the perfect time to plan your real estate strategy. Whether you’re looking to take advantage of rising inventory or prepare for an increase in buyer demand as rates fall, let’s discuss your options. 


Contact me today to schedule a consultation, and let’s ensure you’re ready to make the most of the upcoming market conditions!








MISSY WIESEN


949.887.6644

Missy@ThePughGroup


 
 
 

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